Winds Of Winter Release Date - Rumors, Facts and Speculation

Rumors regarding the potential release date of Winds of Winter - book 6 of the A Song Of Ice and Fire (AKA A Game Of Thrones) epic fantasy series by George RR Martin - have swirled since shortly after the release of book 5 in July of 2011.  Most speculation has concluded that the release of Winds of Winter will not be until at least late 2015, putting the HBO mega hit series on track to arrive at the book 6 and certainly book 7 storyline well in advance of those books being released.  Many have expressed concern that George RR Martin has been increasingly slow to release the next book in the series, however it is worth mention that the release of the TV show most likely caused scheduling conflicts (Martin consults on the show and also writes 1 episode per season) business-related delays in the publication date of Dance With Dragons.  Thinking from the publishers perspective, an HBO adaptation - especially a successful one - could bring a huge new readership to the series that could exponentially increase the success of the release of book 5.  Even if book 5 were ready to release prior to the first season of Game of Thrones, delaying the book using any excuse would be a prudent business decision in light of the mainstream audience that would soon be exposed to the Song of Ice and Fire series.  Now that the series has momentum and is on top of the world in terms of popularity the publisher should be motivated to release the instant bestsellers as fast as possible while the series remains one of the most popular shows on television.

As more information emerges, this post will be updated to keep track of current news and rumors on the Winds of Winter release date as well as the forthcoming Dream of Spring speculation.

Facts:

  • George RR Martin himself is concerned that he will not finish the books ahead of the series, saying in 2012: "The last thing I want is for the TV series to catch up with me. I’ve got a considerable head start, but production is moving faster than I can write. I’m hoping that we’ll finish the story at about the same time… We’ll see."
  • Martin has said that he does not currently know many of the details of the remainder of the story, saying in March of 2014:  "I can give them the broad strokes of what I intend to write, but the details aren’t there yet. I’m hopeful that I can not let them catch up with me."
  • Martin said "Next year maybe.  I doubt this year." in Spring of 2014 in response to questions regarding the release date of the book in an interview with a Brazilian newspaper.
  • Martin has mentioned the number of pages the manuscripts that he sends to his editor to be trimmed down is usually about 1500 pages.
  • Martin has given hints about his progress on the book on, mentioning that he had about 400 pages complete (as of October 2012) and that he was about "1/4 of the way done" (as of April 2013). 
  • The length of time between the release of book 4 and book 5 was nearly 6 years.  Book 3 to 4 was 5 years, with roughly 2 years separating the release of the previous three books.
  • Roy Dotrice (A Song Of Ice and Fire Audiobook Narrator) seemed to mention that GRRM was nearly finished with the 6th book when he said "George tells me that he's got another one maybe ready" in a December 2013 interview.
  • HBO has said they intend to produce 7 seasons of the television series, 4 of which are now complete.

Rumors:

  • Roy Dotrice's December 2013 comments regarding George RR Martin having another book ready has generated rumors that the 6th book is imminent and reaching stages of audiobook production.
  • It is rumored that George RR Martin has provided HBO writers with details on how the story progresses and ends. - CONFIRMED

Speculation:

  • Many have speculated that late Fall of 2015 will be the logical release date for Winds of Winter based on the release of the World of Ice and Fire scheduled for late October 2014.
  • FiveThirtyEight vaguely predicted a release date most likely somewhere between February 2015 and November 2015 based on GRRM's writing speed in previous works and other data that they gathered.
  • Other speculation has deduced that patterns in Martin's schedule may reveal a release date of April 2015.
  • The Independent has speculated that the book may be released in 2017,
  • Other speculation has concluded that Martin will not finish and release book 6 until the series catches up with the book and forces its release, which is similar to the 2017 predictions by the Independent.
  • It has been widely speculated that the HBO series will reach the book 6 storyline in early 2016, meaning that production would need to begin much earlier than that.
  • FiveThirtyEight has also speculated that the end of the series may be revealed on television before Book 7 (A Dream Of Spring) is released.

 

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