Destiny: What are the chances of getting Exotic gear?

Destiny is at a stage where many players are working to collect the last few pieces of exotic gear in Destiny, and others are just beginning a collection. There are many ways to get exotic gear in Destiny.  Exotic weapons drop from Crucible matches, Vanguard Strikes, Legendary Engrams, Raid Chests/Bosses and Nightfalls and Xur sells a random exotic weapon each week.  Exotic armor drops from Nightfalls and Legendary Engrams, and Xur also sells 1 item per class each week. 

The numbers used in these calculations are rough estimates based on a smaller sample size of user data derived from community posts.

It will come as no shock to Destiny fans that your best chances of getting any particular Exotic weapon or armor are from Xur selling it on the weekends.Good luck!

Exotic Weapon:

Crucible Match - 1/500

Vanguard Strike - 1/50

Legendary Engram - 1/50

Nightfall - 1/10

Raid Boss - 1/5

Raid Exotic Chest - 1/20

* there are 29 different exotic weapons that drop randomly, so the odds of getting any particular exotic is 1/29 times the odds above.  ie:  The odds of getting a Ghallerhorn from the Nightfall is 1/290

Exotic Armor:

Nightfall: 1/10

Legendary Engram - 1/50

*armor breaks down by class and type, so the odds of getting a particular piece of armor are the odds above times 1/X where X is the number of different variations of a certain type (ie: helmet) of gear.


Xur - 1/29

Armor 1/7

Exotic Engram - 1/1

*These are the actual values.  Xur now always has an Exotic Engram for sale. 

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